- questions
- Hand back homework.
- Discuss class survey; show compilation of results.
- Continue discussion of probability; do a few examples.
- The most important part is the underlying idea; counting things can get messy in any particular example.
- How many people before 50/50 chance that 2 have same birthday?
- A couple has 5 children. What is the probability that 2 are boys and 3 are girls?
- What are the odds of being dealt a 5 card flush ? Two aces? A pair of any kind?
- You picked door number 1. But wait - what if I say that ...
- Which is more likely, being killed in a car accident or being killed in a plan crash? How would you find out?

- Revisit formula for mean in terms of
probabilities : "expected value".
- chuck-a-luck: roll 3 die, pick a number. You win : $3 if your number is on all 3; $2 if your number is on 2; $1 if its on one. If your number doesn't come up, you pay $1. Is this a fair game? Which side would you rather play? How much would you make in the long run?
- Lottery: how do you calculate an "expected value"? And what does that number really mean?
- St Petersberg paradox, and its various resolutions.

- Common sense
- stock market scam
- pg 40 in innumeracy; court case

- Try to displaying class survey data with Excel
- Start talking about binomial distribution (chap 5)
- "bi" - system with 2 values
- p = probability of "success"
- q = 1- p = probablity of "failure"
- n = number of trials
- S = total number of successes
- example on pg 129: lung cancer patients
- C(n,m) = number of ways a subset of m things can be taken from a group of n

= "binomial coefficient"

= n!/( m! (n-m)! )

= number in Pascal's triangle - some examples from end of chap 5

Jim Mahoney
*(mahoney@marlboro.edu)*

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